My preview of the 2016 Iowa Caucuses just went live at US News & World Report. It reads in part:
The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses will be held next Monday evening. Who wins, only time will tell. But who loses already appears certain: the Republican establishment.
Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders. Two are almost certain to win Iowa, and two are nearly as certain to win their parties’ nominations (though not necessarily the same two). And any of the four would be a rejection of longtime GOP leaders.
On one hand, I wrote:
On the Democratic side, Iowans are choosing between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
The latter is a self-proclaimed socialist who opposes crony capitalism. ‘Nuff said.
The former is perceived as the establishment choice of her party – so much so that the GOP’s moderate pro-immigration and business supporters who care little about social or security policy may be tempted to back her.
Her critics would warn that from Wall Street to the Keystone XL Pipeline, erstwhile allies have found her less of a pro-business protector than head of a protection racket. “Nice industry,” she seems to be saying. “It would be a shame if anything happened to it.”
On the other hand:
On the Republican side, since Sept. 9, 2015, Trump, Cruz and Ben Carson have held more than 50 percent of GOP voters’ support, according to RealClearPolitics’ poll of polls. That signals that the party’s voters have made one choice already: anybody but the establishment.
The bottom line:
Any way you slice it, whoever wins Iowa, it appears that the GOP establishment will lose.
Feel free to check out the full piece here.